A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
